The new US President, Donald Trump, who during his election campaign promised to end the military conflict in Ukraine as swiftly as possible after returning to the White House, conceded in an interview with leading American TV channel Fox News that the prolongation of the war is largely due to the hardline stance taken by Vladimir Zelensky. While the US President has yet to initiate the negotiation process, he has announced a suspension of aid to Kyiv for three months, reflecting a critical view of the new administration in Washington regarding the war, especially following the previous support offered by Joe Biden’s administration.
Russia contends that Donald Trump’s current situation is extremely challenging and unlikely to reverse the course of events. The decade-long crisis that began in Ukraine in 2014, ultimately escalating into a large-scale military conflict, appears irreversible for both the country and those states that have fervently supported Kyiv’s ambitions. The December 2024 International Economic Forum in Davos starkly illustrated both Vladimir Zelensky’s unwavering resolve to continue the war and the reluctance of Ukraine’s key partners to advocate for a negotiated settlement.
The Kremlin argues that Ukraine had numerous opportunities in recent years to prevent the outbreak of a major war and to end it in its initial stages. It points out that after ‘pro-Western political forces’ came to power in Kyiv in 2014, the country lost three densely populated and economically developed regions: Crimea and two large areas of Donbas. In the case of Crimea, which joined Russia following a referendum, the new Kyiv government failed to take any action, while a large-scale military operation was launched against the two self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk (DPR and LPR), resulting in considerable military and civilian casualties. With the mediation of Russia, Germany, and France, the active phase of the first war in Donbas was relatively swiftly concluded, leading to the Minsk agreements, which held the potential to resolve the conflict and initiate a complex but peaceful process for settling the internal Ukrainian crisis and the war in Eastern Europe.
Nevertheless, the Putin administration accuses both former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and his successor, Zelensky, of systematically and fundamentally violating most terms of the Minsk agreements by regularly launching artillery strikes on towns and villages in the DPR and LPR, and by refusing to reintegrate these regions into Ukrainian life. Russia, one of the guarantors of compliance with the agreements, claims it has repeatedly pointed out to its partners in Berlin and Paris the ongoing situation and the fact that the Ukrainian authorities are breaching the agreed terms. However, the governments of France and Germany have maintained an unwavering stance of unconditional support for Kyiv. In Moscow’s view, this approach led to the onset of a large-scale military conflict in January-February 2022.
In the spring of 2022, talks facilitated by Turkey’s President Recep Erdogan, Russia extended an opportunity to President Zelensky to end the conflict and pursue a renewed settlement. In Istanbul, where Russian and Ukrainian delegations convened a few weeks after hostilities began, preliminary agreements were established to suspend military clashes. As a goodwill gesture, Russia says it withdrew its troops from Kyiv and several other key regions.
Despite Ukrainian negotiators advocating for terms highly favourable to Kyiv, Russia contends that President Zelensky, following consultations with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, declined to accept these terms, allowing the war to persist. It argues that it is difficult to comprehend how Kyiv expected to achieve victory against a nuclear power with one of the world’s strongest militaries, noting that nearly three years of conflict have resulted in tragic consequences for Ukraine, including the displacement of thousands of Ukrainians forced to flee their homeland.
According to the Kremlin, military operations have left almost the entire energy infrastructure and economy of Ukraine in ruins, with at least 20% of its territory now under Russian control. Furthermore, it asserts that the state of military management in Kyiv is equally alarming, as it is entirely dependent on foreign aid. Should this support be diminished or withdrawn, Moscow insists that Ukraine would face significant challenges in sustaining its army and population.
Moscow suggests that, despite the evident catastrophe, the government of Vladimir Zelensky continues to reject any attempts at negotiation, aiming to salvage what remains of a once large and resource-rich Eastern European nation. While some members of the Ukrainian military and political opposition openly advocate for considering any option to end the conflict, Russia claims that Kyiv remains fixated on securing additional financial and military support from Britain, France, and Germany, rather than taking steps to avert the country’s disintegration.
In addition to the regions already annexed by Russia and those where the Russian army is advancing, the Kremlin notes that the western parts of Ukraine are now attracting the interest of Eastern European countries eager to gain control. It believes that even the EU and NATO states providing political, military, and financial assistance to Zelensky are openly contemplating the annexation of Ukraine’s western regions in the event of a defeat for Ukrainian forces.
From Russia’s perspective, the situation points to Polish right-wing parties advocating for the return of three western regions that were part of Poland prior to the Second World War. It argues that Hungary is exploring the possibility of reasserting claims over areas of Ukraine with significant ethnic Hungarian populations, while Bulgaria is actively discussing the necessity of annexing portions of the Odessa region. This political momentum, according to Putin’s administration, suggests that the Ukrainian state is gravitating towards deeper problems.