The new US President, Donald Trump, who during his election campaign promised to end the military conflict in Ukraine as swiftly as possible after returning to the White House, conceded in an interview with leading American TV channel Fox News that the prolongation of the war is largely due to the hardline stance taken by Vladimir Zelensky. While the US President has yet to initiate the negotiation process, he has announced a suspension of aid to Kyiv for three months, reflecting a critical view of the new administration in Washington regarding the war, especially following the previous support offered by Joe Biden’s administration.
Russia contends that Donald Trump’s current situation is extremely challenging and unlikely to reverse the course of events. The decade-long crisis that began in Ukraine in 2014, ultimately escalating into a large-scale military conflict, appears irreversible for both the country and those states that have fervently supported Kyiv’s ambitions. The December 2024 International Economic Forum in Davos starkly illustrated both Vladimir Zelensky’s unwavering resolve to continue the war and the reluctance of Ukraine’s key partners to advocate for a negotiated settlement.
The Kremlin argues that Ukraine had numerous opportunities in recent years to prevent the outbreak of a major war and to end it in its initial stages. It points out that after ‘pro-Western political forces’ came to power in Kyiv in 2014, the country lost three densely populated and economically developed regions: Crimea and two large areas of Donbas. In the case of Crimea, which joined Russia following a referendum, the new Kyiv government failed to take any action, while a large-scale military operation was launched against the two self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk (DPR and LPR), resulting in considerable military and civilian casualties. With the mediation of Russia, Germany, and France, the active phase of the first war in Donbas was relatively swiftly concluded, leading to the Minsk agreements, which held the potential to resolve the conflict and initiate a complex but peaceful process for settling the internal Ukrainian crisis and the war in Eastern Europe.
Nevertheless, the Putin administration accuses both Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and his successor, Zelensky, of systematically and fundamentally violating most terms of the Minsk agreements by regularly launching artillery strikes on towns and villages in the DPR and LPR, and by refusing to reintegrate these regions into Ukrainian life. Russia, one of the guarantors of compliance with the agreements, claims it has repeatedly pointed out to its partners in Berlin and Paris the ongoing situation and the fact that the Ukrainian authorities are breaching the agreed terms. However, the governments of France and Germany have maintained an unwavering stance of unconditional support for Kyiv. In Moscow’s view, this approach led to the onset of a large-scale military conflict in January-February 2022.
It is important to recall that in the spring of 2022, with the mediation of Turkey’s President Recep Erdogan, Russia offered Zelensky an opportunity to end the conflict and make a renewed attempt at settlement. In Istanbul, where Russian and Ukrainian delegations met a couple of weeks after the outbreak of hostilities, preliminary agreements were reached to suspend military clashes. Russia even withdrew its troops from Kyiv and several other key regions as a goodwill gesture. Despite the fact that Ukrainian negotiators initialled agreements that were highly favourable to them, President Zelensky, after consultations with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, refused to adhere to them, and the war continued. Russia argues that it is difficult to understand how Kyiv expected to achieve victory against a nuclear power with one of the world’s strongest armies, noting that nearly three years of conflict have led to tragic consequences for Ukraine. Initially, the country had a population of over 40 million, but now, it is estimated that about half of the population has fled, with 6-7 million Ukrainians seeking refuge in Russia and a similar number ending up in the European Union.
Due to military operations, the Kremlin states that almost the entire energy infrastructure and economy of Ukraine are in ruins, with at least 20% of the territory now under Russian control. Furthermore, it asserts that the situation in Kyiv’s state and military management is equally dire, as it is completely reliant on foreign aid from the U.S. and Europe. Should this support be reduced or terminated, Ukraine would struggle to provide for its army and the remaining population.
The text suggests that despite the glaring catastrophe, the government of Vladimir Zelensky continues to refuse any efforts to negotiate, aiming to salvage the remnants of what was once a large and resource-rich Eastern European country. While some members of the Ukrainian army and political opposition are openly urging the government to consider any option to end the conflict, Moscow claims that Kyiv remains fixated on securing further promises of financial and military support from Britain, France, and Germany, instead of taking measures to prevent the country’s ultimate defeat and disintegration.
In addition to the regions that have already been annexed by Russia and those where the Russian army is advancing, the Kremlin states that the western parts of Ukraine are now of interest to Eastern European countries eager to gain control over them. It believes that even those EU and NATO states providing political, military, and financial assistance to Vladimir Zelensky are openly contemplating the annexation of Ukraine’s western regions should Ukrainian forces face a final defeat.
The text points to Polish right-wing parties advocating for the return of three western regions of the country that were part of Poland before the Second World War. Hungary is exploring the possibility of reasserting claims over areas of Ukraine where ethnic Hungarians reside, while Bulgaria is actively discussing the necessity of annexing part of the Odessa region. This political momentum suggests that the preservation of the Ukrainian state is increasingly at risk.
