The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) has issued a stark warning for the eastern Horn of Africa, predicting a severe drought in the coming months that could exacerbate the region’s already dire food insecurity.
According to the October to December 2024 seasonal forecast released by IGAD’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), drier than normal conditions are expected in the eastern Horn of Africa while western parts are likely to experience above-normal rainfall.
Southern Ethiopia, much of Somalia, eastern Kenya, and parts of central and southern Tanzania are expected to experience below-normal rainfall, with the highest probabilities in southern Ethiopia and central and northern Somalia.
However, the western parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, including south-western Ethiopia, Uganda, western Kenya, Burundi, Rwanda, and western Tanzania are expected to experience above-normal rainfall.
The temperature forecast indicates an increased likelihood of warmer-than-average surface temperatures across the GHA, with eastern parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, Djibouti, and Somalia expected to experience the highest probabilities of warmer-than-average conditions.
In contrast, average to cooler-than-average temperatures are anticipated in cross-border areas of Uganda, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Kenya, as well as localized areas in northern Tanzania and western Sudan.
IGAD’s Executive Secretary Workneh Gebeyeh, underscored the urgency of the situation, noting that the impending drought in the eastern regions could worsen the food crisis already affecting over 56 million people across the IGAD member states.
“The climate outlook for the October to December 2024 season shared today underscores the urgent need for coordinated preparedness efforts by national governments, development agencies, and humanitarian partners. Together, we must prioritize early action for building resilient systems capable of addressing these evolving challenges”
Environment Principal Secretary Festus Ng’eno noted the critical role of early warning systems in mitigating the impact of such climate events.
“The effectiveness of these systems depends on our collective action. We need to invest in the development and maintenance of these systems. We need to ensure that warnings reach everyone, including the most vulnerable communities. And we need to educate people about the risks of climate change and how to respond to early warnings,” he stated.
